BUSINESS AND MANAGEMENT

Why three-point estimation skill is useful in project management

1. A) Description of problem & environment

The three-point estimation is a technique of method which is in both information system and management for the essence of constructing an estimated probability distribution. In return, the probability distribution is used to represent the outcome of some future measures and events which are to be based on extremely limited data (Cox, 2009). Moreover, depending on its area of application, either triangular distribution or normal distribution can be used for the purpose of approximating future events.

On the other hand, since the three-point estimation technique plays a major role in project management, efforts estimations is also valuable depending on their accuracy. This is the reason as to why the risk/risks which are to evolve from original estimation have been computed into the overall projection (Richman, 2012). Whenever using this technique, it is important to examine three distinct areas i.e. duration, event, and resources. For instance, when considering the duration of the chosen event, the project manager should understand that there certain types of resources which must be readily available. Thus, when these tools are effectively combined together with other basic statistics i.e. mean, Z-values, and standard deviation, they enhances the ability of the practitioner to manage the project efficiently in terms of cost, time, and work effort  (Richman, 2012).

Amongst the activities which are done during the life cycle of a project, on particular issue which is unavoidable is the estimation of time. Precise estimation of time is a significant skill for the management of a project. The reason for this is because it has the ability of affecting all phases of the project. Therefore, project planning depends on precise estimation of time. Conversely, mostly, stakeholders of such a project end up judging whether it was fruitful or not depending on the time the project was delivered and the budget (Cox, 2009).

As a result of that, through tabling this issue regarding the risks involved in the project, it means that all the project members are given the capacity of inputting into the estimated timeframe of the process. Moreover, the project manager goes a way beyond the tactics which normally surrounds the making of estimates using a single quantity (Kathy, 2013). Typically, project members will be thinking about such a single quantity as well as padding it the much they can. The reason for that is because from experience they will be made aware that it is possible for the project manage to cut it randomly. This may not be the logical way of getting good estimates.

In the act of using the 3-point estimates method, the project manager will be recording all estimates (three) in the workplace of the project members and the negative and positive risks which are identifiable (McCarthy, 2010). This then undoubtedly communicates to his or her team members and the potential sponsor of the project that such approximates may not be 100% certain. The reason for that is because there are some risks which have the ability of effecting the time allocated for a particular task (Kathy, 2013). In short, when it comes to project management, this method removes the uncertainty of the project team which is linked with the time estimating process.

Presentation of topic and research

In using this technique, three figures should be generated at the start for any distribution which is needed, based on the best-guesses or after experiences. These include;

            a= as the best-case approximate

            b = the most probable approximate

            c = the pessimistic-case approximate (Hass, 2014).

Nevertheless, in the process of creating the three-point estimates, the following three steps ought to be taken into consideration;

1) Recording the positive period (a) _ the purpose of this time is that it assists in representing the minimum sensible period of time which can be utilized to complete a certain activity of the project. In most cases, there exists only a diminutive probability-normally presupposed as being less than 1%-which is achievable (Gurjar, N. (2016).

2) Recording the most probable period (m) _ the most likely time is the time needed to accomplish a certain activity which also based on historical information and some distinctive conditions. Due to the fact that ‘m’ is the time which is to assumed to likely to be achieved, it also remains to be the method of beta distribution (Gurjar, 2016).

3) Recording the pessimistic period (b) _ this refers to the maximum logical time that is to be consumed in accomplishing a certain activity. Equally, there exists of only a diminutive probability-normally presupposed as being less than 1%-which is achievable

In addition to that, information to be used for analysis using this technique is obtained from all individuals who are responsible for executing different tasks of the project. For instance, in utilizing the three approximates, the project manager can compute the activity’s weighted average, expected duration, and probability estimate time of completing the entire project (Hass, 2014). Thus, the equation below can be used to approximate the variance (σ²) and mean (µ) of every activity;

                        = a + 4m + b6

This formula should be based on the beta weights and statistical distribution. Therefore, the pessimistic time (m) is four times for either of the two durations i.e. time (a) or (b). As the equation illustrates, the variance will be the of the differences between the two i.e. (optimistic and pessimistic) time approximates. This indicates, therefore, that the higher the difference between the two extremes, the bigger the variance is. Since the above example used time, also work effort or cost of the project can be used too.

3) Application of research to environment with particular attention given to how it solves key challenges or creates opportunities

Mostly, project cost estimation process challenges and scares the majority of project managers. The reason for that is because they may not be able to accurately estimate the amount something or a certain task will cost. The main challenge in this context is that it involves some uncertainty or improbability. Some of the contributing factors include;

1. I) one’s experience with such projects _ having inadequate experience with similar projects increase project uncertainties. But in case the project manager had initially managed such projects, he or she will be able to estimate the project’s cost efficiently (Knutson, 2001).
2. II) The project’s planning scope _ the longer the scope of the project, the higher the uncertainties. The scope that the project manager may be considering can either be a certain phase or entire project. Whoever the horizon, he or she should be able to accurately approximate the costs for that project closer to the present.

III) The duration of the project_ in case the project takes long period to be accomplished, the greater the chances of encountering uncertainty (Hass, 2014).

1. IV) People _ the number of people together with their expertise is a significant factor for project cost estimation. Since during the early days of the project the manager may not specific individuals who will comprise the project team, it is possible to increase the uncertainties of the cost estimates.

With respect to the above illustrations, the three-point estimation has several applications. First, now that we have acknowledged the fundamentals of this technique, the project manager can use it for scheduling purpose (Richman, 2012). The reason for this consideration is because the sequence of the tasks to be executed by all individuals in the project team permits the determination of the project’s significant pathway. For instance, the longest chain of related activities throughout the project assists in indicating the shortest possible time to be used in completing the project.  Moreover, this technique assist in indicating which task ought to be accomplished before the commencement of another one so that the project can run smoothly (Cox, 2009).

Additionally, another crucial aspect of this method is that it allows the general assessment of the all the effects of uncertainty by the project manager on the project’s completion time. For example, it makes it easier for the project manager to approximate how productive the project will be based on the general scheduling of various tasks (Heldman, 2011). Furthermore, he or she will be given the opportunity of factoring out those variables which he or she can have full control on them. Thus, it will not be surprising that some of the will arise which might complicate the normal flow of events.

On the other hand, the core competency of the project manager is to be in the position of effectively managing a project/s in term of work effort (i.e. scope), cost, and time. In particular, schedule, poses distinctive challenges to the majority of project managers.  The reason for that is because all those parameter must be approximated or estimated. As a result of that, the three-point method offers the opportunity of recognizing any form of uncertainties in the project’s time estimation. Together with other basic statistics, this technique will enable the project manager to identify any activity which has the greatest variance or risk, compute the confidential levels, and offer the probability of accomplishing the project on the speculated date (Heldman, 2011).

For example, if one of the members of the project team acknowledges that the preceding task which entailed in a particular department of an organization made the quantity of assignment in the task to increase considerably, it is because the department’s manager repeatedly failed to attend the project meetings.  Acknowledging that means that, as a project leader, there is the need of taking necessary steps of encouraging all the project members to attend its meetings. Other than reducing the likelihood of the negative risk/s, there is the possibility of precisely estimating the task as well as improving the duration of the project (Knutson, 2001).

In addition to that, since each project member offers his or her best, optimistic, and optimistic guesses regarding their deliverables, this techniques, therefore, enables the project manager the capacity of increasing precision of one-point estimate, better project team dedication since such an estimate considers the risk/s in the task (McCarthy, 2010).  Moreover, this technique offers better information because the project manager will be explicitly considering the risk/s. he or she will be learning about the risk or risks of a certain activity earlier in its process from individuals who will be accomplishing the work (Kathy, 2013).. Thus, he or she will have the opportunity of taking corrective measures before starting to work on that project. This increases the chances of better risk/s as well as decreasing that of bad ones.

 

 

                                                References

Cox, D. M. T. (2009). Project management skills for instructional designers: A practical guide. Bloomington, Ind: iUniverse Inc

Gurjar, N. (2016). A forward looking approach to project management: Tools, trends, and the impact of disruptive technologies.

Hass, A. M. J. (2014). Guide to advanced software testing.

Heldman, K. (2011). Project management jumpstart. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley.

Kathy, S, (2013). Information Technology Project Management. Cengage Learning Press

Knutson, J. (2001). Project management for business professionals: A comprehensive guide. New York: John Wiley.

McCarthy, J. F. (2010). Construction project management: A managerial approach. Westchester, Ill: Pareto -- Building Improvement.

Richman, L. L. (2012). Improving your project management skills. New York: American Management Association.